Wednesday, 13 July 2011

Higher stocks pile on the pressure for CPO price

Quoted from CIMB analyst Ivy Ng..

Malaysia’s palm oil stock climbed 7% mom to an 18-month high of 2.05m tonnes in June..

..we continue to expect CPO prices to trend lower, possibly to below RM3,000 per tonne in the coming month as we estimate a 2% mom uptick in palm oil stock in July..

Palm oil stocks climbed for a fifth straight month to an 18-month high of 2.05m tonnes at end-June 2011, marking the first time that stocks are above the psychological 2m tonne mark this year..

All countries, except China buy more palm oil from us. Export increase from 1,406,000tonnes to 1,581,000tonnes.

Average local CPO price declined 2.5% mom but was 31% higher yoy at RM3,287 per tonne in June. This brought the average CPO price for 1H11 to RM3,463 per tonne, an increase of 35% from last year’s RM2,550. CIMB target average CPO price is RM3,200 for whole 2011. So 1H11 already average at RM3,463, what do you think of average for 2H11?? CIMB target average of RM2,900.. 

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